The City of Calgary monitors and forecasts key indicators for the local economy and publishes the results twice a year in the spring and the fall. These forecasts assist the municipal government in its financial and physical planning for Calgary.  

Calgary's sluggish economic growth has limited its ability to accommodate the surge of job seekers caused by the high population increase, resulting in rising unemployment. The unemployment rate is likely to underestimate the shortage of jobs due to the number of people who have settled for part-time jobs while looking for full-time work.  

We predict the Bank of Canada (BOC) will cut the policy rate, decreasing interest rates for businesses and consumers. Calgary's economic performance is expected to outperform Alberta's and Canada's. Alberta's energy market's increased access to new markets has the potential to grow the economy, increase profit margins, and increase government revenue. However, imposed U.S. tariffs and counter-tariffs will likely slow economic activity, boost input costs frequently passed on to consumers, and reduce housing demand. Housing demand may also soften due to tighter federal immigration policies, but various government initiatives and lower borrowing rates are projected to support investment. 

Overall, we expect the uncertainty created by the current policy environment to contribute to slower economic growth in Calgary.

• Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2025-2030: Spring 2025
  • Executive Summary
  • Spring 2025 Forecast Tables

Population Outlook is updated in January 2025 and published in our Spring 2025 Calgary and Region Economic Outlook.